INFLATION ALERT AS OIL NEARS $100 By Javier Blas and Peter Garnham in London
Thursday, November 08, 2007
Crude oil jumped to within striking distance of $100 a barrel yesterday as the US dollar tumbled to records lows, prompting fresh fears of a resurgence of global inflation.
Responding to the price rise, Frederic Mishkin, US Federal Reserve governor, warned that central banks needed to “make sure that it does not spill over into long-run inflation impacts” but said authorities should not overreact to short-term figures.
Simon Derrick, analyst at Bank of New York Mellon, said: “Concerns among investors are clearly growing about rising inflation globally and in the US in particular.”
The concerns come as central banks in continental Europe and the UK meet today to consider interest rate policy amid slowing economies hit by a second wave of credit turmoil.
West Texas Intermediate crude, the global benchmark, rose to a nominal record of $98.62 a barrel – up almost 60 per cent since January – propelled by tight supply, robust demand and falling inventories, as well as investors betting on more dollar weakness.
Crude prices stalled their rally later as data showed that US oil inventories declined less than feared last week, prompting some profit taking.
But inflationary fears were aggravated by warnings from two leading global bodies on the future of crude and food prices.
The International Energy Agency, the western countries' energy watchdog, said a crude oil supply side crunch before 2015, “involving an abrupt escalation in oil prices”, cannot be ruled out under current trends.
Fatih Birol, IEA chief economist, warned: “Our energy system's wheels may fall off.”
At the same time, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organisation said global food prices were likely to remain high in 2008, after record highs this year. It said agricultural commodity prices in the food supply chain would raise retail prices causing “a widespread and commonly shared concern about food price inflation”.
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