RISING POPULATIONS BREED RISING POWERS 

 
NEIL HOWE and RICHARD JACKSON
Wednesday, February 14, 2007
 
 
Three decades ago, a population explosion was deemed to be humanity's greatest threat. Today, our worries have turned around: the prospect of a population implosion haunts our future.

The developed world's population is on track to decline steadily from 2025 onwards, according to United Nations' projections. Excluding the US, the decline has already begun. Japan, Europe and Russia could lose between one-half and two-thirds of their population by 2100. Even some large developing countries are due to see a decline: China after 2030 and Mexico after 2050.

As leaders ponder this prospect – and wade into nasty debates about pension cuts, incentives to have children and immigration expansion – some experts tell us not to worry. They say fewer people may be a blessing: growth in living standards will continue while congestion and pressure on the environment will be eased. We believe, to the contrary, that population decline will pose massive fiscal, economic and geopolitical challenges that leaders have hardly begun to grasp.

Let us start with the fiscal challenge. Because population decline is driven by falling fertility rates – and because life expectancy meanwhile is rising – countries projected to have shrinking populations are also projected to experience a rapid rise in the ratio of old to young. By the year 2050, at current fertility rates, Japan and most of the nations of Europe will have a median age of much more than 50 – which means as much as two-thirds of the adult population would then be eligible for public pensions under today's rules. Add the impact of ageing on healthcare expenditures and the extra public cost could easily exceed 10 per cent of gross domestic product in most countries.

Governments will be forced to choose between economically ruinous tax rises and politically impossible benefit cuts. Either that, or they will have to slash other budget areas (such as education, infrastructure and defence) or run large fiscal deficits (and undermine national savings) to make ends meet.

The fiscal impact aside, population decline may also, in fact, undermine growth in living standards. Smaller societies are less able to benefit from economies of scale. A shrinking labour force also requires less annual investment, which in turn limits opportunities for technological innovation; what some economists call “learning by doing”. Such economies, having less need for capital expansion, will tend to accumulate an ageing stock of physical capital. With each birth cohort smaller than the last, they will also acquire an ageing stock of human capital – possibly lacking the creative and entrepreneurial drive associated with youth.

Consider what it will feel like to live in an economy in which real GDP is experiencing little or no long-term growth. By the 2020s, this will be the case in Japan and much of Europe, where workforces will be shrinking about as fast as productivity will be growing. The impact may be profound. History shows that societies often react defensively to a stagnating economy, favouring cartels, beggar-thy-neighbour protectionism and anti-immigrant populism. Just think of the 1930s.

Finally, there is the geopolitical challenge. When it comes to security and global influence, size matters. It makes a difference to your future whether you live in China or Taiwan. It also makes a difference whether your nation expects to be much larger 50 years from now (such as India) or much smaller (such as Russia). As important as absolute size is the rate of growth or decline over time. Demographic growth is not a sufficient condition for power or prosperity. Many societies have populated their way to ruin. But it does seem to be a necessary condition for the long-term success of nations.

The record is clear: virtually every rising power in history has also been a demographically expanding power. That is true for entire civilisations and also for individual states in their era of most rapid ascendance, as attested by the history of Venice, Portugal, the UK, Germany and the US, among others. By contrast, there has been no rising power that has simultaneously experienced demographic decline.

In rising powers, higher fertility rates go hand in hand with greater faith in collective destiny. Feeling optimism about the future, families have more children. These children in turn reinforce adults' focus on posterity. Children and the future make a virtuous circle – a lesson that the developed world would do well to ponder as it looks to the coming century.

Neil Howe is a senior adviser and Richard Jackson a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington

人口增长：大国崛起的必要条件

 
美国战略与国际研究中心尼尔•豪(NEIL HOWE)和理查德•杰克逊(RICHARD JACKSON)为英国《金融时报》供稿
2007年2月14日 星期三
 
 
30年前，人口爆炸被视为人类最大的威胁。如今，我们的担忧完全改变了：人口锐减的前景笼罩着我们的未来。

联合国(UN)预计，发达国家人口从2025年起将出现稳步下降的趋势。在美国以外的其它发达国家，这种情况已经开始出现。在2100年前，日本、欧洲和俄罗斯的人口，可能会减少二分之一至三分之二。即使是一些大型发展中国家，人口也会减少：中国在2030年之后，墨西哥在2050年之后，就会出现这种状况。

在领导者考虑这种前景、并积极参与有关削减养老金、鼓励生育和扩大移民的烦人争论之际，一些专家告诉我们无须担心。他们表示，人口减少可能是件幸事：生活水平将继续提高，而拥挤状况和环境方面的压力将有所缓解。相反，我们认为人口减少将在财政、经济和地缘政治方面带来巨大的挑战，而领导者们还没开始意识到这一点。

让我们先从财政方面的挑战谈起。由于人口减少是受到生育率下降的推动——同时也是由于人口寿命不断上升——因此，预计人口将不断减少的国家，也必将面临老龄人口比例迅速上升的前景。以目前的生育率计算，到2050年，日本和多数欧洲国家人口的年龄中值将远远超过50岁——这意味着按照现行规定，到那时有三分之二的成年人将有资格领取公共养老金。将老龄化在医疗支出方面的影响和额外的公共成本相加，总数可能会轻而易举地超过国内生产总值(GDP)的10%。

政府将被迫做出抉择：一方面是在经济上具有破坏作用的加税，另一方面是政治上不可行的削减福利。要么做出选择，要么就不得不大幅削减其它领域的预算（如教育、基础设施和国防），或者通过大量财政赤字（并影响国民储蓄）来实现收支平衡。

撇开财政影响，实际上，人口下降可能也将影响生活水平的提高。规模较小的社会，通过规模经济获益的能力也比较低。劳动力不断减少，对年度投资的要求也相应减少，进而限制了技术创新的机会，即一些经济学家所谓的“边干边学”。这样的经济对资本扩张的需求较低，它们倾向于积累不断老化的物质资本。由于新出生的每一代人都比上一代少，因此也会出现人力资本老龄化——可能缺乏年轻人特有的创新和创业动力。

想想看，生活在一个实际GDP不断下降或长期停滞的经济环境中，会是种什么样的感受。到21世纪20年代，这种情况将出现在日本和欧洲的大部分地区，在上述地区，劳动力减少的速度将与生产率提高的速度同样快。其影响可能是深远的。历史经验表明，社会往往对停滞的经济做出自卫性反应，社会青睐垄断、以邻为壑的保护主义和反移民的民粹主义。只要想想20世纪30年代就清楚了。

最后，还有地缘政治方面的挑战。当谈到安全和全球影响力的时候，国家的规模十分重要。你是生活在中国大陆还是生活在台湾，这对你的未来至关重要。你的民族从现在起的50年之后是会大得多（如印度），还是会小得多（如俄罗斯），也十分重要。与绝对规模同样重要的，是日后增长或下降的速度。人口统计学意义上的增长，并非实力或繁荣的充分条件。许多人口众多的社会都走向了毁灭。不过，人口增长却似乎是一个国家长期成功的必要条件。

历史记录很清楚：实际上，历史上每个崛起的大国，同时人口也在增长之中。整个文明社会如此，处于最快上升期的单个国家亦是如此，威尼斯、葡萄牙、英国、德国和美国等国的历史便是明证。相反，没有一个大国在崛起的同时，人口处于下降之中。

在崛起的大国里，生育率的上升与对集体命运更坚定的信念往往联袂出现。由于对未来感到乐观，家庭就会养育更多的孩子。这些孩子反过来提高了成人对于后代的关注程度。孩子和未来构成了一个良性循环——这是发达世界在展望下个世纪的时候，要好好反思的一个教训。