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【推荐】一部鼓吹中美对抗的奇书

【推荐】一部鼓吹中美对抗的奇书

WEAPONS OF MASS PRODUCTION AND OTHER TALES

 
By Morgen Witzel
Friday, December 01, 2006
 
 
For some American policymakers and commentators, China is replacing Islamic extremism as the bogeyman under the bed. China's uninterrupted growth now poses a threat to American interests. Its global economic expansion, as they see it, must be stopped.

One such commentator is Peter Navarro of the University of California, Irvine, a well-known analyst and commentator in the American broadcast media. He believes that China is conducting “an aggressive drive for global economic hegemony” and in The Coming China Wars urges America to do all it can to halt the country's forward march.

Measures should include direct economic confrontation with China including sanctions and border controls – backed up, if necessary, by military action.

Having set out this remarkable thesis, Prof Navarro lists the potential flashpoints that could lead to conflicts between China and other nations, especially the US. These include the flow of cheap manufactured goods that have come to dominate many world markets, which he dubs the “weapon of mass production”. The now familiar story of counterfeiting and piracy is also trotted out, along with environmental pollution, the growing Chinese demand for sources of energy and its internal social problems.

What is new – and sinister – is how Prof Navarro weaves these into his theme. In every single case, the Chinese government is directly or indirectly responsible for the problem. In every single case, the problem is linked to China's attempt to achieve world economic domination.

For example, Navarro believes that piracy and counterfeiting are tacitly supported by the Chinese government. Referring to “China's buccaneer nation”, he quotes a senior executive from an American pharmaceutical company who says: “Let's be practical here. It won't get much better until China has its own intellectual property to protect.”

Thus is reinforced the lie that China produces no innovations of its own but merely scavenges off the west. The idea that the country that invented gunpowder, paper and ketchup, among other things, has no intellectual property of its own is laughable but Navarro asserts it as “fact”.

He is critical too of the urbanisation of China, seeing it as deliberate policy to ensure a supply of cheap labour for the “WMP”. But urbanisation is a hallmark of a developing economy. China's share of GDP derived from agriculture is comparable to that of medieval Britain: 39 per cent for the former in 2003, 44 per cent for the latter in 1300. That must change. Migration to the cities is a natural, if painful, part of growth. This point is ignored.

The obscurations go on, but it is the chapter on drugs that really sets the tone. “No single country plays more of a key role than China in the global production, transportation and distribution of . . . illegal hard drugs,” he writes, adding a long list of scary statistics to prove his point. He does not blame the Chinese government directly – but any reader who wishes is free to make the inference that the government of China is indirectly, if not directly, responsible.

The policy prescriptions offered for averting this “threat” are both absurd and chilling. He advocates stripping China of its veto position on the UN Security Council on the grounds of its “immoral and opportunistic use of its UN veto as a diplomatic shield for all manners of outrage”. This would have the added benefit of humiliating China.

Meanwhile, drug trafficking, pollution and piracy are to be combated through tighter border controls and sanctions against companies involved in them.

He warns American consumers of “the real and dangerous hidden costs that are embedded in the purchase of cheap Chinese goods”. But even if American consumers stopped buying them, how would this help the US economy? They would buy equally low-priced goods from other sources.

Then comes the moment when hair stands up on the back of the neck. “What virtually all these policy prescriptions share . . . is that they require the economic and political will to stand up to China along with the military might to back up the prescriptions.”

The author offers no credible evidence to support the thesis of an aggressive Chinese quest for domination. When he discusses China's difficult internal social problems, he goes a long way towards contradicting it.

To suggest that China is engaged in “an aggressive drive for global economic hegemony” is nonsense. To assert that the US must respond with economic confrontation backed up by the threat of war is, to borrow a phrase from Jeremy Bentham, nonsense on stilts.

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最后编辑2006-12-01 21:39:23.937000000
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一部鼓吹美中对抗的奇书

 
作者:英国《金融时报》专栏作家摩根•威策尔(Morgen Witzel)
2006年12月1日 星期五
 
 
对于一些美国决策者和评论员而言,中国正在取代伊斯兰极端主义,成为一个藏在暗处的恶魔。随着中国经济的不断增长,如今已对美国的利益构成了威胁。他们认为,必须制止中国的全球经济扩张。

其中一个持有这种观点的人,就是加州大学(University of California)欧文分校教授彼得•纳瓦罗(Peter Navarro)——一位在美国广播电视媒体经常露面的著名分析员和评论员。他认为,中国正展开“一项大胆行动,寻求全球经济霸权”。在其所著的《即将到来的中国战争》(The Coming China Wars)一书中,他敦促美国尽其所能,遏制中国的前进步伐。

书中提到,美国应该采取的措施包括:与中国进行直接的经济对抗,包括制裁和边境控制——必要情况下,以军事行动作为支援。

在抛出这种令人震惊的论点之后,纳瓦罗教授列出了一些潜在的触发因素,它们可能会引发中国和其它国家的冲突,尤其是中美冲突。中国的制造业产品已主宰全球许多市场,而他列举的因素就包括中国廉价制造业产品的流入问题——他将这称为“大规模生产武器”(weapon of mass production)。如今已经不新鲜的仿冒和盗版问题也被列举了出来,此外还有环境污染问题、中国不断增长的能源需求问题和中国国内社会问题。

比较新颖且有着险恶用心的一点,乃是纳瓦罗教授如何将这些论点附和他的主题。他认为,对于每一个单独问题,中国政府都负有直接或间接的责任;对于每一个单独问题,都与中国试图取得全球经济主导地位有关。

例如,纳瓦罗认为盗版和仿冒问题得到了中国政府的默许。在谈到“中国是海盗国家”时,他援引了一家美国制药企业高管的话:“让我们实际一点吧。只有中国自己有了可以保护的知识产权,情况才会好转。”

由此,谎言得到了强化:中国没有自己的创新,只是从西方拾荒。认为一个发明了火药、造纸术和番茄酱等东西的国家没有自己的知识产权,这个看法很可笑,但纳瓦罗却武断地认为这是“事实”。

他对中国的城市化也百般挑剔,将其视为一项蓄意的政策,以确保“大规模生产武器”获得廉价劳动力供应。然而,城市化是经济发展的标志之一。中国农业占GDP的比例相当于中世纪的英国:2003年,中国的比例为39%,1300年,英国的比例为44%。这种情况必须改变。城市化是经济发展中一个自然(即便痛苦)的过程。但作者忽略了这一点。

扭曲现实的文字还在继续,但有关毒品的章节真正为本书定下了基调。他写道:“没有一个国家像中国这样,在全球非法硬毒品的生产、运输和分销中发挥关键作用。”他同时列出了一长串可怕数据来证明他的观点。他没有直接谴责中国政府,但任何一位读者只要愿意,都会毫不费力地得出推论:中国政府即使没有直接责任,也对此负有间接责任。

为消除这种“威胁”,他提出的政策建议荒谬且可怕。他鼓吹剥夺中国在联合国安理会(UN Security Council)的否决权,理由是该国“不道德地、机会主义地使用否决权,以此作为各种离谱事件的外交盾牌”。剥夺中国的否决权,还可以起到羞辱中国的作用。

同时,他建议通过严格的边境控制和对参与企业进行制裁,来打击贩毒、污染和盗版行为。

他警告美国消费者:“购买中国廉价商品,隐含着真实而危险的隐藏成本”。然而,即便美国消费者停止购买中国货,这对美国经济又有多大好处呢?他们会购买来自其它国家同样低价的产品。

接下来,是令我们毛骨悚然的一段话:“实际上,这些政策建议的共同点……在于,它们需要美国具有与中国对立的经济和政治意愿,同时需要军事力量来支持这些政策。”

作者没有提出任何可信的证据,来支持他所提出的中国野心勃勃寻求世界霸权的观点。当他谈论中国内部复杂的社会问题时,他的观点也自相矛盾。

认为中国具有“建立世界经济霸权的野心”的看法,是胡说八道。宣称美国必须使用经济对抗,同时利用战争威胁作为支持,这样的看法,借用杰里米•边沁(Jeremy Bentham)的话来说,完全是匪夷所思。


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