CHINESE INFLATION

 
Lex Wednesday, June 13, 2007
 
 
Rising inflation, rocketing share prices and US lawmakers moaning about currency manipulation: can Beijing postpone a rise in interest rates for much longer?

The answer is less clear-cut than would be the case elsewhere. Interest rates have little effect on foreign exchange rates, given capital controls and a crawling peg, so US lawmakers would continue to push for looser currency controls regardless. Equally, another 27 basis point rise would barely move the needle for stock investors; after taxes, the real interest rate generated on bank deposits would still be negative. Besides, Beijing prefers to keep interest rates as a weapon of last resort, after administrative fiat and lifting banks' reserve requirements.

The central bank can even shrug off Tuesday's strong inflation data – prices rose 3.4 per cent in the year to May, the fastest pace in two years – claiming volatile food prices. Sure, swine fever played a big role, but food comprises one-third of Chinese spending, and a host of factors point to further rises. Land supply is falling, people are increasing calorific intake, natural disasters are part of the landscape and water supply is limited. China is particularly vulnerable to galloping grain prices – the country accounts for 20 per cent of global consumption, according to the World Bank. Beijing has protected farmers and consumers from much of the global rises by dipping into its strategic grain reserves, but that is a tactic that only lasts as long as the reserves themselves.

Sustained higher food bills inevitably put pressure on wages, already increasing by an average 15 per cent a year. So far, wage increases have been broadly absorbed by productivity gains and margin erosion. Anecdotal evidence suggests that, in some quarters at least, exporters are starting to balk and seeking to raise their own prices. It is far too early to say if they will succeed, but central bankers inside and outside the People's Bank of China should certainly be paying attention.

中国央行会加息吗？

 
英国《金融时报》Lex专栏
2007年6月13日 星期三
 
 
不断加剧的通胀，日益飙升的股价，加上美国立法者对汇率操纵的抱怨：中国政府还能迟迟不加息吗？

问题的答案不像在其它地方那样明确。鉴于中国的资本管制和爬行盯住汇率制度，利率对汇率影响甚微，因此美国国会议员无论如何都会继续施压，要求中国政府要放宽汇率管制。同样地，再加息27个基点也难以打消股票投资者的投资热情；扣除利息税后，银行存款的实际利率仍为负值。此外，中国政府更愿意先采取行政手段和上调银行存款准备金率，将利率作为最后的武器。

中国央行甚至可以不理会周二发布的强劲通胀数据——5月份消费物价同比上涨3.4%，创下两年来的最快增速——将其归咎于食品价格的波动。当然，猪瘟产生了重大影响，但食品占中国总支出的三分之一，而且一系列因素显示物价将进一步上涨——土地供应量不断下降，人们正在增加卡路里的摄取，自然灾害频频发生，水资源供应非常有限。中国尤其容易受到粮食价格飞涨的影响——世界银行(World Bank)的数据显示，中国的粮食消费占全球总消费量的20%。中国政府通过动用战略粮食储备，没有让农民和消费者过多受到全球粮价上涨的影响，但这种战术持续的时间只能和战略储备一样长。

食品价格的持续上涨，不可避免地会对已经在以每年15%的速度上涨的工资水平构成压力。迄今为止，消化工资上涨的手段主要是提高生产率和牺牲利润率。坊间证据显示，至少在某些领域，出口商已经开始犹豫不前，希望提高自己产品的价格。现在判断他们能否成功还为时过早，但中国央行及其它央行的官员肯定应该加以关注。

Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析。