RENMINBI

 
Lex
Wednesday, November 29, 2006
 
 
One country, two systems; but (almost) one exchange rate. A combination of domestic and external factors – a weakening US dollar against all leading currencies, China's own swelling trade surplus – have pushed the renminbi rate to Rmb7.84 to the dollar, or just a whisper away from the HK$7.8 level at which the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the greenback.

The renminbi is now up 3.3 per cent since the revaluation in July 2005. That may well be less than the White House would like – and certainly lower than the trade surplus and domestic liquidity would imply – but it shows a new tolerance on the part of Beijing. This may well last, along with ongoing modest appreciation. So long as the renminbi moves roughly in line with other Asian currencies, trade flows are broadly unaffected. Beijing can live with currency appreciation that does not jeopardise job creation.

Even some of the drawbacks have lost their sting. Currency appreciation is a magnet for speculators, but there are now flows moving in the opposite direction that partially offset this. Liquidity remains a headache: money supply is growing at around 17 per cent a year. But a combination of increased reserve requirements and other measures are having an impact, as shown by the recent rise in short-term money market rates to 3.8 per cent.

Naturally, speculative flows mean that risks remain – as they do for Hong Kong, which famously catches a cold when Beijing sneezes. Currency speculators are already betting that the Hong Kong dollar peg may snap: 12-month forwards are pricing in a slight strengthening. That is highly improbable, but the former colony will not escape unscathed. Interest rates, which have fallen below US rates, will have to rise, dealing a blow to property prices. And Hong Kong businessmen will find that taxi drivers in the border boomtowns – who long ago adopted exchange rate parity – demand more Hong Kong dollars for their renminbi-denominated fares.

中国汇率的“一国两制”

 
英国《金融时报》Lex专栏
2006年11月29日 星期三
 
 
一个国家，两种制度；但（几乎）只有一种汇率。随着美元对所有主要货币汇率全面下跌，加之中国的贸易顺差不断扩大，在内外双重因素影响下，人民币汇率已升至7.84元人民币兑1美元，距离香港联系汇率制度下7.8港元兑1美元的汇率水平仅一步之遥。

自2005年7月汇率重估以来，人民币已升值3.3%。这或许低于美国政府期望的升值幅度，而且肯定低于中国的贸易顺差和国内流动性所暗示的水平，但它表明北京展现出一种新的容忍度。这种姿态或许将与人民币温和升值的趋势一同持续下去。只要人民币汇率变动与其它亚洲币种大体一致，贸易流动就不会受影响。只要人民币的升值幅度没有危及创造就业，中国政府就可以容忍。

人民币升值带来的一些不利因素也有所减退。货币升值会引来投机者，但目前存在一股反向资金流，部分抵消了投机资金涌入的影响。流动性仍然是令人头疼的问题：货币供应量年增幅约为17%。但中国提高了存款准备金率，并实施了其它措施。这套政策“组合拳”正在发挥作用，货币市场利率近来升至3.8%，便是一个例证。

当然，投机性资本流的存在，意味着风险仍然存在——对香港来说也是如此。中国一感冒，香港就发烧，这一点早已人所共知。外汇投机者已在打赌香港的联系汇率制将会松动：12个月远期外汇合约的价格已经体现了港元将微幅升值的预期。出现这种情况的可能性非常低，但香港也不可能全身而退。香港的利率水平目前已经低于美国利率，未来将不得不升高，这将对房地产价格造成冲击。而香港商人也将会发现，在与香港接壤的内地新兴都市中，很久以前就采用港元兑人民币平价汇率的出租车司机们，将会为人民币计价的车费索要更多的港元。