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【推荐】弗里德曼的四大贡献

【推荐】弗里德曼的四大贡献

Friedman's illuminating ideas will continue to live on


 
By John Greenwood
Wednesday, November 29, 2006
 
 
Milton Friedman, who died last week, was renowned for work of scintillating originality. He invariably had a fresh perspective that derived from his analysis of the basic ideas as much for their own sake as for their policy implications and he was always willing to follow the logic wherever it led, not compromising with what he called the “tyranny of the status quo”.

Four big issues of our time illustrate his continuing relevance. First, on economic development he did not fall back on the easy slogan “trade not aid”, but advocated free private markets with equal emphasis on each word. The point was that it was just as important to free and privatise the domestic economy as to abolish border controls and restrictions, although free trade was a step in the right direction.

If prices were not free to vary – or if goods and capital were subject to controls and taxes – then distortions, waste, and corruption would result. Without private ownership, entrepreneurs would not have the incentives to innovate. Bureaucrats could not know what the market wanted. Marketswere the only mechanism that would reward producers and satisfy consumers while enlisting the best of motives on both sides: voluntary co-operation.

Second, on corporate responsibility he took a characteristically maverick stance. The job of a company, he said, was to make profits for its shareholders, not to pursue socially responsible goals. If a company attempted to fulfil goals beyond its obligations to customers, employees, creditors and shareholders then the entire economy would suffer. Earning lower profits than normal would send misleading signals, distorting the proper level of investment and employment in that sector. The way to achieve “socially responsible” goals was through personal or direct government action.

Third, in the debate about public services Friedman invariably took the side of the consumer, arguing that it was impossible for a state-owned, command-and-control system to be responsive to multiple needs of a diverse population. He questioned whether government could produce any goods or services more effectively than the private market, let alone services as complex as healthcare or education. However, he always distinguished between the provision of a service and its financing.

Historically schools and medical services had been provided privately – commercially or through charities – but then governments started to intervene. Laws imposing compulsory attendance at schools, for example, came with a Faustian side-contract: government control of schools and standards, public sector teachers' unions and administrators who seized control of the curriculum, denying parents and children a say in the content of the education. Parents, pupils and politicians have struggled ever since to deal with the consequences of an increasingly bureaucratised and centralised education system.

To deal with the problem of low-income families unable to afford privately owned and operated schools, Friedman devoted much of his later years to promoting voucher plans modelled on the GI bill that provided educational benefits to US military veterans. Under his scheme parents would get a voucher good only for educational expenses and would be free to choose the school at which they used it, provided only that the child qualified for the school. The voucher's value would be set at the basic cost of education for each age group and accrue to the selected school. Schools would be free to raise additional tuition fees, or raise funds for scholarships. Schools would then have to compete.

Fourth, Friedman played a crucial role in the development of financial futures. Foreseeing the demise of the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rates system, he wrote a paper in December 1971 on extending futures markets from their agricultural base to the currency markets. With Friedman's paper, Leo Melamed was able to open the Chicago International Money Market in May 1972. Futures in gold, interest rates, Treasuries and stock indices followed and the modern world of derivatives and risk management was born.

Friedman's championing of free markets to enhance personal liberty and achieve the optimal allocation of society's limited resources helped turn the tide on collectivism in the past quarter century. But the battle of ideas is never permanently won. Exploring ideas from fundamentals was his hallmark. Long after he has gone, people will debate these four issues, but few will achieve his ability to illuminate them with such laser-beam clarity.

The writer is chief economist at Invesco-Perpetual



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弗里德曼的四大贡献

 
作者:英国景顺集团首席经济师祁连活(JOHN GREENWOOD)
2006年11月29日 星期三
 
 
最近辞世的米尔顿•弗里德曼(Milton Friedman),以其引人瞩目的独创性成果而著称。他总是能通过分析基本概念得出新的观点,他分析的不仅是这些概念本身,还分析其政策影响。同时,他总是乐于遵循逻辑——不管逻辑会把他引向何处,不会向他所谓的“现状暴政”(tyranny of the status quo)妥协。

当前时代的四大问题说明了他一贯的实用性。首先,在经济发展方面,他并没有简单地求助于“要贸易、不要援助”的口号,而是不遗余力地倡导自由私有市场。他的观点是,国内经济的开放和私有化,与废除边境控制和限制同样重要,而自由贸易则是向正确方向迈出的一步。

如果价格不能自由变化——或者说商品和资本受到管制和税收的限制——那么就会出现扭曲、浪费和腐败现象。没有私有权,企业家就不会有创新的动机。官僚主义者不会知道市场要的是什么。市场是唯一能够回馈生产者、并满足消费者的机制,同时还有利于双方的最佳动机:自愿合作。

其次,在公司责任方面,他采取了一种特立独行的姿态。他指出,一家公司的任务就是为股东赚取利润,并非追求对社会负责任的目标。如果一家公司试图实现超越其对消费者、雇员、债权人和股东责任范畴的目标,那么整个经济都会遭受损害。赚取低于正常水平的利润,会发出具有误导性的信号,扭曲该领域正常的投资和雇佣水平。“对社会负责任的”目标可以以个人的方式实现,也可以通过直接的政府行为。

第三,在有关公共服务的争论中,弗里德曼总是站在消费者一边,他辩称,一个国有的、指令与控制型体系,不可能对结构复杂的人口的多种需求做出反应。他质疑政府是否能比私有市场更有效地生产任何产品、或提供任何服务,且不必说像卫生保健或教育这么复杂的服务。不过,在提供服务与为其融资这两方面,他一直分得很清楚。

从历史上看,学校和医疗服务一直是由私人提供的——或是以商业的方式,或是通过慈善团体——但后来,政府开始介入。例如,强制实行义务制教育的法律,就伴随着一种“浮士德(Faustian)式的契约”:政府控制学校和教育标准,以及拥有课程控制权的公共机构教师团体和管理者,父母和孩子对教育内容丧失了发言权。自此之后,家长、学生和政客们一直都在苦苦努力,以应付越来越官僚化和集权化的教育制度所造成的种种后果。

为了解决低收入家庭的孩子上不起私立学校的问题,弗里德曼晚年把大量时间用于推广“教育凭单计划”(voucher plans),该计划效仿了为美国退伍军人提供教育福利的《退伍军人法》(GI Bill)。根据弗里德曼的方案,父母可以得到一张只能用于教育费用的凭单,而且可以自由选择在哪所学校使用,唯一的前提是孩子具备进入该校的资格。教育凭单的价值根据每个年龄组的基本教育成本确定,并根据所选学校自动增加金额。学校可以自行提高额外学费、或为奖学金筹集资金。如此一来,学校将不得不展开竞争。

第四,弗里德曼在金融期货发展方面起到了关键作用。由于预见到布雷顿森林(Bretton Woods)固定汇率体系的终结,他于1971年12月撰写了一篇论文,探讨了期货市场从基础的农业领域向货币市场延展的问题。正是由于弗里德曼的这篇论文,利奥•梅拉米德(Leo Melamed)才得以在1972年5月设立了“芝加哥国际货币市场”(Chicago International Money Market)。随后,黄金、利率、美国国债(Treasuries)和股票指数期货相继出现,衍生品和风险管理的新时代随之诞生。

弗里德曼拥护自由市场,以提高个人自由度、实现社会有限资源的最佳配置,这帮助逆转了过去25年中集体主义的潮流。但是,观点之间的交锋决不会永久获胜。他的特点是从基本原理中发觉出新的观点。在他离去的很长时间以后,人们仍会争论这四个问题,但很少能有人具备他那种能力,把这些问题阐释得如此透彻、清晰。

本文作者是英国景顺集团(Invesco-Perpetual)首席经济师


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