Diverging dragon

 
Editorial Friday, August 10, 2007
 
 
No economy in history has lifted more people out of poverty in a shorter period of time than China has within the last two decades. This fact cannot be celebrated enough. Yet the success also comes with important qualifiers.

A recent report by the Asian Development Bank pronounced China, alongside Nepal, to have the most unequal income distribution in Asia. That is bad news and calls for action.

Some income inequality is inevitable and good. It creates incentives for hard work. However, too much inequality leads to broad resentment, social conflict and instability. All of these also threaten growth. China is in precarious territory. South Korea and Taiwan were never as unequal during their decades of rapid development in the 1970s and 1980s as China is today.

Income inequality is only part of the story. The gap between rich and poor in terms of health and education is at least as important. More-over, geography plays a large role. Most rich live along the coast. The rural poor inland are cut off from the majority of new roads, hospitals and schools.

Beijing needs to focus its efforts on these unequal opportunities. Many improvements – for example, strengthening healthcare, education, infrastructure and environmental protection – will come at a cost. Others – such as stemming corruption or enhancing property rights protection – will pay for themselves. The government must carefully weigh any such reforms against their effects on economic growth. After all, even China's poor have more spending power than their neighbours in India, which has traditionally followed more ostensibly pro-poor policies.

Some reform efforts aimed at decreasing inequality could directly aid growth. So far, China's growth has largely been based on serving as the world's manufacturer of cheap goods. That gave a clear advantage to coastal provinces. At this point in its development, China will have to rely more on internal demand. Increasing the relative wealth of 600m Chinese still living in poverty would help these efforts.

Chinese leaders have calculated that the country would need 8 per cent annual growth to maintain stability. They have more than achieved that objective over the past two decades. Now the challenge is to maintain the phenomenal expansion while spreading growth opportunities more equally.

Mao Zedong was worried about a “serious tendency toward capitalism” among rich peasants. Today's leadership needs to worry about popular unrest among the poor.

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贫富差距拉大对中国不利

 
英国《金融时报》社评
2007年8月10日 星期五
 
 
在过去短短的20多年间，没有哪个经济体象中国这样帮助如此多的人口脱贫。这一事实怎么庆祝都不为过。不过，对中国的这种成功也要有所保留。

亚洲开发银行(Asian Development Bank)最近的一份报告表示，中国和尼泊尔是亚洲收入分配不均最为严重的两个国家。这是个坏消息，需要有关方面采取行动。

在某些方面，收入不均是不可避免的，也是件好事。它为人们制造了努力工作的动力。然而，收入过度不均会导致广泛不满、社会冲突和不稳定。所有这些问题还对经济增长构成威胁。中国正处在不稳定的状态中。在上世纪70年代和80年代经济迅速增长的数十年间，韩国和台湾的收入不均从未像目前中国大陆那样严重。

收入不均只是问题的一部分。健康和教育方面的贫富差距至少同样重要。此外，地理因素在其中发挥了很大作用。多数富人居住在沿海地区，而贫困的内陆农村地区与大多数的新公路、医院和学校无缘。

中国政府必须将其努力集中在这些机会不均方面。许多条件的改善，如加强医疗、教育、基础设施和环境保护等，需要付出代价。而其它改进措施将会物有所值，例如抑制腐败或加强物权保护。中国政府必须谨慎权衡任何此类改革措施对经济增长的影响。毕竟，相对于一向采取更表面化扶贫政策的邻国印度，即便是中国的贫困人口，也比其印度人民拥有更强的购买力。

一些旨在减少不平等现象的改革措施可能对经济增长产生直接帮助。迄今为止，中国的经济增长很大程度上是基于充当全球廉价商品制造商这一角色。这给中国沿海省份带来明显的优势。而在目前的发展阶段，中国将不得不更多依赖内部需求。为6亿仍处于贫困状态的中国人口提高相对财富，可能会对这些努力有所帮助。

中国领导人已经认定，要想保持稳定，中国需要实现8%的年经济增长率。过去20年，他们远远超过了这一目标。目前的挑战是，一方面维持这种非凡的经济增长，同时更均等地分配增长机遇。

毛**曾担心富裕农民中会出现“严重的资本主义倾向”，而中国当前的领导层则需要担忧贫困人口中普遍的不安定因素。