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【推荐】媒体大鳄──默多克(上)

【推荐】媒体大鳄──默多克(上)

Murdoch's mission (1)
 
By Aline van Duyn and Joshua Chaffin
Friday, August 03, 2007
 
Four days after Rupert Murdoch made front-page news around the world through his bid to buy Dow Jones and its Wall Street Journal newspaper, the mogul was standing before 60 of his most senior executives.

The meeting in early May at a plush Californian resort, not far from his own ranch near Carmel, was called to discuss opportunities for news businesses – from print to television – in an age of increasing digital distribution of content.

Mr Murdoch opened the session by asking his troops to raise their hand if they knew how news would work in an age dominated by the internet. None shot up. Mr Murdoch's next instruction was: let's find some answers.

The 76-year-old founder of News Corp – the global media group worth some $68bn (£33bn, �0bn) that he built up from the small Australian newspaper company he inherited over 50 years ago – has just doubled his bet that he can figure out how to make money from traditional media in a digital age.

In a departure from his previous strategy of adding digital expertise through acquisitions such as MySpace, the social networking site he took over in 2005 for $580m and which has become one of the world's most popular web destinations, he is instead paying nine times as much to buy one of the biggest companies in the slow-growing US newspaper sector.

The $5bn move is a counter- intuitive investment in an industry on which many investors have given up. Recent auctions of other American dailies have drawn few bidders and trading statistics have been grim. In May, compared with a year earlier, advertising revenue for US newspaper companies fell by more than 9 per cent – the worst month ever in a non-recession period. Classified advertising – from jobs to property – is shifting to the internet at a faster pace than ever, while profit margins are being squeezed because so many costs – such as paper and printing presses – are fixed.

“Any significant investment in newspapers requires intestinal fortitude at this point,” says Peter Aman, an Atlanta-based partner at Bain, the consultancy, who works with many of the large companies in the sector.

News Corp was built on newspapers, first in Australia and then in the UK and the US, but these now form a small part of a group that includes not only MySpace but 20th Century Fox studios, the biggest group of US television stations, satellite broadcasters in the UK and Italy, and book publishing. Still, the newspaper division gives Mr Murdoch enormous visibility and provides political clout (see below). Newspapers also mean a lot to Mr Murdoch personally: in one of his letters to the Bancroft family, which has owned Dow Jones for over a century and yesterday agreed to sell to him after three months of agonising, Mr Murdoch said: “First and foremost, I am a newspaper man.”

Yet the purchase of Dow Jones is less of a bet on newspapers than a move by Mr Murdoch to acquire content that he can then use across the many different media sectors in which he plays: print, television and, increasingly, the internet.

The financial news and information that Dow Jones produces is regarded as more valuable than the general news on which many newspapers survive, both in its importance to trading and business decisions and in the appeal to advertisers of its readers, who are generally well- educated and wealthy.

“Not every newspaper is the same,” says Mr Aman. “Some business-focused ones are likely to have more robust opportunities in the future. National newspapers could too, because their scale will make them more attractive to advertisers.”

The Wall Street Journal is one of the few US newspapers that is both business-focused and read across the country. Its closest national rivals are USA Today and The New York Times.

Despite Mr Murdoch's long newspaper history, buying Dow Jones takes him for the first time into the financial information business. Overall, demand for such information is expected to grow, fuelled by the growth of financial assets themselves. In one estimate, the McKinsey Global Institute says financial assets worldwide will be worth $214,000bn by 2010, up from $140,000bn in 2005.

To manage these assets, the need for accurate, fast and in-depth financial information will grow around the world, especially in Asia – and, although individuals are used to getting information for free on the web, businesses do pay for information. Many continue to do so, especially when gaining access to information faster, or being able to analyse market trends better, gives users an edge over rivals and makes them money.

In spite of the overall growth in demand, consolidation in financial services, as well as the growing competitive pressure as more information becomes freely available on the internet, is prompting tie-ups across the information industries. Just days after Mr Murdoch confirmed he had bid for Dow Jones, Reuters and Thomson announced a $17bn merger, aimed at dominating the market for electronically distributed information. (Canada's Thomson sold all its newspaper assets years ago, one of the earliest responses to the threat posed by declines in circulation. Indeed, in London Mr Murdoch bought The Times from Thomson in 1981.)

“The common thread for media companies is that technology and the internet are blurring distribution lines, such as between newspapers, electronic distribution and video,” says Devin Wenig, who is due to head Reuters' and Thomson's merged news and financial side. “The different businesses are no longer as neatly segmented, which means it is more about a brand and what you can do with a brand.

“In the case of The Wall Street Journal, this would mean considering what you can do with its information in print as well as on the internet, as a television channel – it is something that could be used across the overall breadth of News Corp.”

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Mr Murdoch outlined some of his business plans in his letter to the Bancroft family. He pledged to invest in Dow Jones' digital operations, bolster the Journal's Washington bureau and use his formidable resources to reinvigorate the paper in Europe and Asia – two markets in which the Journal has made heavy cuts in recent years.

“My hunch is that the two competitors he would have in his sights would be the FT outside the US and The New York Times inside,” one former Dow Jones executive says.

Mr Murdoch's decisions are not all likely to be driven by short-term commercial factors: many of his newspapers operate at a loss and he is expected to invest and expand with a longer-term perspective in mind.

Beyond those broad strokes, though, details remain murky. For example, News Corp could quickly and easily expand the Journal's clout overseas simply by carrying its branded articles in the business sections of its papers in Europe and Asia.

One urgent question involves digital strategy: specifically, whether Mr Murdoch will drop the subscription fee for WSJ.com. With more than 900,000 subscribers, it has emerged as a rare example of a website that has convinced consumers to pay for just about all its content. Yet critics argue that the Journal could substantially increase its internet traffic – and the associated advertising revenue – by making its website free. Mr Murdoch has suggested there are merits to both approaches.

Mr Murdoch will also have to resolve Dow Jones' relationship with CNBC, the cable business network owned by GE's NBC Universal division. He already has his eye on some of the nearly $600m in annual revenue CNBC makes, from a mix of advertising and fees from cable and satellite companies, and is launching a rival Fox Business Network in October.

One of News Corp's rationales for the deal was that the Journal would add instant credibility to the Fox business channel. Reflecting the potential threat from a News Corp-owned Dow Jones, GE and Pearson (owner of the Financial Times) discussed the possibility of together making a rival bid but in the end decided they felt unable to justify matching the 65 per cent premium Mr Murdoch had offered.

Jeff Zucker, chief executive of NBC Universal, says CNBC will not take the new rival lightly. “We are not going to make the same mistake that CNN made when Fox News Channel came into the marketplace – and ignore them. We are not going to ignore them, we are not going to take them lying down. And we'll be ready and I think we are ready,” he recently told the FT.

Marjorie Scardino, chief executive of Pearson, said this week: “No intelligent business person would ever be sanguine about competitors and we are certainly not.” But she argues that the FT Group has “the scale and the strategy to continue as a worthy competitor” to The Wall Street Journal and is pursuing a “completely different strategy”, targeting a global niche of wealthy readers rather than a mass- market audience.

As Mr Murdoch plots his strategy, the competitive landscape is changing. On one end of the scale are Bloomberg and Reuters – which charge premium subscriptions for their information. (Dow Jones used to be big in this field but lost its lead to Bloomberg in the 1990s.) On the other end are general-interest newspapers, which are experimenting with free internet models aimed at winning an audience attractive to advertisers.

Both the professional and the consumer business models are evolving. Bloomberg and Reuters, for example, are increasingly chasing a consumer audience, funded by online advertising. Sites such as Yahoo Finance dominate online financial news in terms of daily traffic. Some sectors of the market, such as wealth managers in the US, are tending more to obtain their information for free from such sites rather than pay for it. “There is a relentless commoditisation of news and information,” says Mr Wenig.

How to tackle that commoditisation is what will confront Mr Murdoch at Dow Jones and its business daily. Norman Pearlstine, former managing editor of The Wall Street Journal, says Mr Murdoch had told him years ago that, if he ever bought the paper, “he would drop everything else and spend a year working on it”.

Yet it might take more than a year to reinvent a business model for newspaper companies – Goldman Sachs analysts recently predicted at least a five-year transition period before the industry's recoups enough digital revenues to offset print's decline.

Mr Murdoch's efforts to prove there is an attractive business model for an operation such as Dow Jones in the face of such pressures will be taking place amid intense scrutiny. The biggest sticking point during the three-month negotiations with the Bancroft family revolved around Mr Murdoch's record of a hands-on editorial approach, which he has displayed in particular with tabloid papers such as the New York Post and The Sun.

One point on which most observers agree is that the issue is no esoteric nicety but is instead core to the future value of Dow Jones. Indeed, a special editorial committee has been set up, intended to curb any unwanted pressure Mr Murdoch might be tempted to put on the Journal's reporters and editors.

But Mr Murdoch will have full power over its business efforts. That in itself should be enough to ensure he continues making headlines, even without dictating them to his editors.

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媒体大鳄──默多克(上)

 
作者:英国《金融时报》阿利娜•范•杜恩(Aline van Duyn)、乔舒亚•查芬(Joshua Chaffin)
2007年8月3日 星期五
 
 
5月1日,默多克竞购道琼斯的消息成了全球头版新闻。四天之后,默多克这位大人物站在了自己60位最高级别管理人员的面前。

这次会议于5月初在加州一处豪华度假村召开,距离他本人在卡梅尔的农场不远,目的是为了探讨新闻业务(从印刷品到电视)在一个数字分销内容越来越流行的时代,具有什么样的机遇。

作为开场白,默多克告诉他的手下,如果谁知道在互联网主宰的时代,新闻应如何发挥作用,就请举手。可没有一个人发言。他接下来的指令是:让我们一起找出一些答案。

这位现年76岁的新闻集团(News Corp)创始人刚刚把赌注翻倍,认为自己能找出在数字时代通过传统媒体赚钱的方法。这个全球传媒集团价值680亿美元,是他在50多年前继承的一个澳大利亚小型报业公司的基础上发展起来的。

他摒弃了以往的战略——即通过收购MySpace等网站增强数字专长。MySpace是他在2005年以5.8亿美元收购的社交网站,该网站已成了全球最热门的网站之一。如今,他反而要拿出9倍的资金,收购增长缓慢的美国报业领域规模最大的公司之一。

在一个许多投资者已经放弃的行业里,投资50亿美元的举动有违直觉。最近,其它美国日报的标售很少有人问津,交易统计数字也不尽人意。与一年前相比,今年5月,美国报业公司的广告收入下降了9%以上——是非萧条时期最糟糕的一个月。分类广告(从招聘广告到房地产广告)以前所未有的速度迅速转向互联网,而利润空间也正受到挤压,因为太多的成本都是固定的——如纸张和印刷机。

贝恩公司(Bain)驻亚特兰大合伙人彼得•阿曼(Peter Aman)表示:“目前这个时候,报业领域的任何重大投资都需要勇气。”贝恩是一家咨询公司,与该领域的许多大公司有合作。

新闻集团以报纸起家,起初是在澳大利亚,后来是英国和美国,但是,这些报纸现在只是集团的一小部分,集团不仅包括MySpace,还包括二十世纪福克斯(20th Century Fox)电影公司,最大的美国电视台集团,英国和意大利的卫星电视,还有图书出版。不过,报纸业务仍使默多克有很高的曝光率,还给他带来了政治上的影响力(见下文)。报纸对默多克个人来说也意义非凡:在写给班克罗夫特家族(Bancroft)的一封信中,默多克写道:“首先,也是最重要的,我是一个报人。”班氏家族拥有道琼斯已逾百年,在苦恼了三个月之后,昨天终于同意将该公司卖给新闻集团。

然而,收购道琼斯的交易与其说是押注报业,不如说默多克旨在获得内容的一个举动,他可以把这些内容用在自己所参与的众多不同传媒领域:印刷、电视、还会越来越多地用于互联网。

人们认为,道琼斯出品的财经新闻与信息,比许多报纸赖以生存的一般性新闻更有价值,不仅仅是因为它对交易和商业决策的重要性,也在于它对读者的广告客户具有吸引力,这些读者一般都受过良好教育,而且较为富有。

“并非每家报纸都是这样。”阿曼指出:“一些专注于商业的报纸以后可能会有更好的机遇。全国性报纸可能也会有好机遇,因为它们的规模使它们更能吸引广告客户。”

《华尔街日报》是美国为数不多的既以商业为重点、又拥有全国读者群的报纸之一。和它最接近的全国性竞争对手是《今日美国》(USA Today)和《纽约时报》(New York Times)。

尽管默多克从事报纸业务的历史很长,但收购道琼斯将使他首次涉足金融信息业务。总体而言,由于受到金融资产本身增长的推动,预计对此类信息的需求也会有所增长。麦肯锡全球研究所(McKinsey Global Institute)在一次评估中表示,全球范围内的金融资产将从2005年的140万亿美元,增至2010年的214万亿美元。

为了管理这些资产,在全球范围内,对准确、迅捷、深入的金融信息的需求将有所上升,特别是在亚洲。同时,尽管个人习惯于从网络上获取免费信息,但企业确实在付费获取信息。许多企业坚持这么做,特别是当能够更为迅速地获取信息,或(信息供应商)能够更好地分析市场趋势,给用户超越竞争对手的优势并赚钱时。

尽管总体需求有所增长,但金融服务业的整合,以及更多信息可以从网上获得,从而导致竞争压力不断增强,这些都促使信息行业的联合。就在默多克证实他竞购道琼斯数日之后,路透(Reuters)和汤姆森(Thomson)宣布进行了规模为170亿美元的合并,旨在主宰电子分销信息市场。(加拿大的汤姆森几年前出售了旗下所有报纸资产,这是对发行量下降所造成威胁最早的回应之一。实际上,在伦敦,默多克1981年就从汤姆森手中收购了《泰晤士报》(The Times)。)

“传媒公司的普遍想法是科技和互联网正在使报纸、电子发布和视频等各种发布渠道的界限模糊化,”戴文•维尼格(Devin Wenig)表示,“不同业务之间的界限不再清晰,这意味着在更多情况下要考虑品牌,以及你能为品牌做些什么。”维尼格将负责路透和汤姆森合并后的新闻和金融业务。

“在《华尔街日报》的收购案例中,这意味着要考虑就像网上信息和电视频道一样,你能对印刷信息做些什么——它能够用在新闻集团的所有业务中。”

(待续)

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