CHINESE INFLATION

 
Lex 
Thursday, November 15, 2007
 
 
It is usually a welcome sign when consumers engage in retail therapy, particularly in Asia's export-oriented economies. But there is nothing therapeutic about China's retail sales, which last month rose at the fastest rate in eight years. Instead of shopping more, the Chinese are simply paying more. Stripping out inflation, Royal Bank of Scotland reckons the 18 per cent year-on-year increase in retail sales is a mere 10 per cent. Thus the latest data series, coming on the heels of stampedes for cooking oil, serves as another reminder of over-heating.

Food prices are the main culprit: non-food inflation was up a modest 1.1 per cent in the year to October, compared with a 6.5 per cent reading on the consumer price index. But that matters in a country where food comprises a third of CPI, and may lead to broader price hikes through demands for higher wages. There are other pressure points. Beijing was forced last month to raise tightly-controlled fuel prices in response to shortages caused by refiners cutting production in the face of mounting losses. Further price liberalisation beckons. Input costs continue to spiral, including commodities and freight rates; producer price inflation in October rose 3.2 per cent year-on-year. Sure, productivity gains and currency appreciation can absorb some of the impact, but they do little to temper the inflationary expectations of farmers, shops and consumers.

That is both a local and, increasingly, global problem. At home, negative real interest rates are fuelling bubbles in real estate and equities. Overseas economies, having benefited for years from imported Chinese deflation, are starting to see Chinese import prices tick up – to the tune of 2.2 per cent in October year-on-year, according to the US Department of Labor. Beijing's monetary response boils down to modest interest rate hikes and increased bank reserve requirements. More interesting is the deceleration in export growth in recent months, suggesting that efforts to turn down the heat may be having some effect.

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谨防中国通胀

 
英国《金融时报》Lex专栏
2007年11月15日 星期四
 
 
当消费者开始使用“购物疗法”时，通常是个可喜的信号，在亚洲出口导向型的经济体中尤其如此。但是，针对中国的零售销售，却没有什么疗法可言。上月，中国零售销售额出现了8年来最快的增速。中国消费者并非购买了更多商品，而只不过是支付了更多的钱。苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank of Scotland)估计，如果不计通胀因素，中国零售销售额同比增长18%的增幅其实只有10%而已。因此，继食用油促销踩踏事件之后发布的最新一系列数据，再次提醒人们中国经济已经过热。

食品价格是“祸首”：截至10月份，中国的非食品价格温和上涨1.1%，远低于消费价格指数(CPI)6.5%的涨幅。但对于一个食品占CPI三分之一权重的国家来说，这一涨幅事关重大，并且可能通过加薪要求带来范围更广的物价上涨。此外，中国还面临其它方面的压力。中国政府上月被迫上调严格控制的燃油价格，以应对炼油厂因面临亏损日益扩大而减产导致的燃油短缺问题。中国政府未来可能还将进一步放开价格控制。生产要素成本继续快速上涨，包括大宗商品和运费；10月份生产价格指数(PPI)较上年同期增长3.2%。的确，生产率提高和人民币升值可以消化部分影响，但它们无助于缓和农民、商家和消费者的通胀预期。

这不仅是中国本国的问题，还日益成为一个全球问题。在中国国内，实际利率为负的情况正加剧房地产和股市泡沫。多年来一直从进口中国通缩中获益的海外经济体，正开始发现来自中国的进口商品价格逐渐上涨——美国劳工部(US Department of Labor)数据显示，10月份从中国进口的商品价格较上年同期上涨2.2%。中国政府的货币政策应对措施不外乎是小幅加息和上调银行存款准备金率。更有趣的是，近几月来中国的出口增长放缓，表明中国政府的降温举措似乎正开始收到一定成效。