Rogers warns of China bubble developing in mainland market

 
By Jamil Anderlini in Beijing
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
 
Jim Rogers, the investor and author, has warned of an “incipient bubble” in the mainland Chinese stock market in an interview with the Financial Times.

He is recommending investors should buy Hong Kong-listed shares in Chinese companies instead.

Mr Rogers has been generating headlines in recent weeks with his bearish comments on the US and the dollar and his recommendation to buy the Chinese renminbi.

But he acknowledged there were not a lot of options for foreign investors wanting to buy assets on the Chinese mainland.

“I wouldn't buy real estate and I know I wouldn't buy any [mainland-traded] A-shares now,” he said. “I don't know why anybody would buy shares in Shanghai when you can buy them in Hong Kong at a big discount.”

Thanks to a stock market that has increased nearly sixfold in 28 months, China is now home to five of the world's 10 largest companies by market capitalisation compared with three for the US.

Analysts say this is clear evidence the market is overvalued, especially considering the relatively poor quality of many listed Chinese companies when compared with their international counterparts.

Mr Rogers says he is heavily invested in China and has never sold a single Chinese share in his life but, if the market continues to climb, he will have to consider selling out.

“It may sound strange for someone who owns Chinese shares to say it would be good for stocks to go down 30 or 40 per cent but, if they don't, there'll be a bubble – and bubbles always end very badly,” he said.

Another high-profile investor, Warren Buffett, recently sold the last of his shares in Petrochina, China's biggest petrochemical firm and likely to become the largest company in the world when it begins trading in Shanghai in early November.

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大投资家罗杰斯警告中国股市泡沫

 
英国《金融时报》雅米尔•安代利尼(Jamil Anderlini)北京报道
2007年10月30日 星期二
 
投资者兼作家吉姆•罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)日前在接受英国《金融时报》采访时警告称，中国内地股市正处于“泡沫初期阶段”。

他建议，投资者应当转而购买在香港上市交易的中国公司股票。

由于最近数周发表了看空美国经济和美元的言论，并建议投资者买进人民币，罗杰斯频频登上各大媒体头条。

但他承认，对于希望购买中国内地资产的外国投资者而言，选择并不多。

“我不会买房地产，我知道我现在也不会买（在内地交易的）A股，”他表示。“当人们能够以较高折价在香港买到中国公司股票时，我不明白为什么还会有人在上海去买。”

由于中国股市在28个月内上涨了近5倍，目前在全世界市值最大的10家公司中，中国拥有5家，相比之下美国只有3家。

分析师表示，这显然表明中国内地股市的估值过高，尤其是考虑到许多中国内地上市公司质量与其国际同行相比较差的情况。

罗杰斯表示，他重仓持有中国公司股票，而且从未卖出过一股，但如果中国股市继续上涨，他将不得不考虑卖出。

他表示：“如果持有中国公司股票的人说，中国股市下跌30%或40%是有益的，这可能听上去有些奇怪，但如果股市不下跌，就会产生泡沫——泡沫破裂的后果总是很严重。”

另一位著名投资者沃伦•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)最近出售了其持有的最后一部分中石油(Petrochina)股票。中石油是中国最大的石化公司，在其股票于11月初在上海证交所上市交易后，该公司有可能成为全球市值最大的公司。