ROLAND VAUBEL

 

Monday, June 11, 2007
 
 
Roland
Vaubel: I agree with Martin that the Chinese are making a mistake. We do not know whether China is saving too much. But we do know that China is not investing its savings efficiently. The problem is not just that foreign exchange reserves are low yielding assets. The Chinese central bank prevents the country from importing capital on a net basis: its official capital exports are larger than private capital imports. However, an emerging economy like China ought to be a net capital importer. In particular, it should not export capital to capital-abundant countries like the US. It is this misallocation of the world capital stock which economists should be concerned about.

China's policy of offsetting private capital imports with official capital exports may be viewed as an attempt to import foreign technology without importing foreign capital on a net basis. Is China's accumulation of foreign exchange reserves merely the unwanted by-product of an export-oriented exchange rate policy? Is it not also the deliberate but misguided strategy of a proud but economically backward people to get hold of the technological achievements of the West without becoming indebted to and dependent on it? The Chinese, or more precisely their political leaders, want our technology but not our capital.

（Roland Vaubel is professor for economics at University of Mannheim in Germany）

中国人的确错了

 
作者：德国曼海姆大学(University of Mannheim)经济学教授罗纳德•沃贝尔(Roland Vaubel)
2007年6月11日 星期一
 
 
罗纳德•沃贝尔(Roland Vaubel)：我同意马丁的观点，中国人确实在犯错误。我们不知道中国是否储蓄过多。但我们的确知道，中国并没有高效率地把自己的储蓄用于投资。问题并不仅仅在于外汇储备是低收益资产。中国央行阻止该国在净额基础上输入资本：其官方资本输出要大于私人资本输入。然而，一个像中国这样的新兴经济体，应该是一个净资本输入国。特别是，它不应该把资本输出到像美国那样资本充裕的国家。这种全球资本存量的配置不当，正是经济学家们应该担心的问题。

中国通过官方资本输出来冲销私人资本输入的政策，也许可被视为一种不用在净额基础上输入外资就能引进外国技术的做法。中国外汇储备的激增，难道仅仅是出口导向型汇率政策带来的多余副产品吗？这难道不是一个骄傲但经济落后的民族，为了在不必欠债、不依赖西方的前提下获得西方技术成果而实施的刻意而又误导的策略吗？中国人，或者说得更具体一些，中国的政治领袖们，希望得到我们的技术，却不想要我们的资本。

（罗纳德•沃贝尔是德国曼海姆大学(University of Mannheim)经济学教授）